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  • I remain completely undecided whether 2010 will turn out to be warmer or cooler than 1998: the ENSO departures in the 2009/10 El Nino episodes seem to have an almost identical strength and timing as those during the 1997/98 El Nino of the century and because ENSO is a key driver of the interannual variability which is still the key at a decadal scale, it is a neck and neck race.
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