I deplore Zimmerman's behavior-his abuse of 911, his method of patrolling, his going about armed-but none of this means, to me, that he is guilty.But we are talking about *likelihoods* here which is a different discussion, and it is not surprising that the examples you gave of your predictive ability were 2/3s very easy gets: the process by which you predict things is, if this thread is an example, q