PropertyValue
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  • Anon;Here is a head to head probability formula you need (from A. Ryder who has done work on ice hockey analytics)A x (1-B) / (Ax (1-B) + B x (1-A))example:Nyg @ Sf.51 @ .73.51 * (1-.73)/ (.51 * (1-.73) + .73 *(1-.51))= .28 vs. .72 So by this formula Sf has 72% chance of winning over NYG at neutral site.Now we need to add a HFA (I can not remember how Brian does it) so lets add ~ 6% (it is around 8%
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  • advancedfootballanalytics.com